- ECONOMIC IMPACT -

Latest update: 17 March

Worldwide GDP forecast looks positive. After downturn for several months, positive GDP is forecast in all countries; 2021 consensus forecast for GDP growth is currently 5.6%.

Unemployment continues to be high. According to the OECD, the unemployment rate in OECD nations stood at 6.8% in December 2020.

- SECTOR IMPACT-

Latest update: 12 December

Sales review

October’s sales finished broadly in line with expectations as inventory issues continued to bite There was a marginal improvement in the SAAR for October with the rate easing up to 74.8 m from September’s 72.8 m However, for recent context the rate was still the lowest October since 2011 when markets were recovering from the global financial crisis.


The sales declines that began in August were a watershed moment for not only the 2021 outlook, but also for what 2022 and beyond will look like September’s and October’s results confirmed the tailspin that sales entered.


In October, of the 21 markets we monitor most closely in our model only two escaped without at year on year decline Those markets were the South American markets of Chile and Colombia Even Chile, a market that had been running hot, was crimped by supply shortages with sales up just 9 year on year against sky high gains in prior months.


Globally we expect declines to taper in the final two months -10.7% pencilled in for November and -9% for December as supply eases. But once again all eyes in the northern hemisphere, especially in Europe, will be on surging COVID cases and tightening social restrictions and the accompanying impact on vehicle retail sales.

Sales outlook for 2022

The current lack of momentum is expected to continue into H1 2022, but with build back by OEMs mounting as we progress through the year, improved supply should see sales pick up in H2. Nevertheless, the market’s stall in the first half of the year will still see a market of just 84.1m about the same level we would have expected for 2021 if the chip crisis hadn’t intervened.


It remains an inverted situation in markets at present market levels are led by production at the moment. While there is a decent level of demand in markets at present some macroeconomic storm clouds are gathering. Pressures from energy costs and inflationary sources are rising. This could bring a slowing in demand before chip supply is realigned. On the flip side, fiscal stimulus is still abundant in many economies and personal mobility needs are high.